Today's Economy vs. Tomorrow's Eco-Economy
Today's Economy
Eco-Economy
Shaped by market forces
Respects principles of ecology
Unsustainable: Maximizes profit regardless of consequences to the ecosystem.
Sustainable: Respects carrying capacity of systems; e.g., does not exceed sustainable oceanic fish catch.
Disregards nature's services
Recognizes ecosystems' natural services.
Consumes dwindlng supply of fossil fuels
Relies on renewable resources such as wind, solar, and geothermal energy.
Pollutes the environment and destablizes climate
Minimal pollution, climate neutral.
Carbon-based auto industry dependent on oil from politically unstable Middle East.
Hydrogen-based fuel-cell auto industry not reliant on specific country source.
Contributes to noisy, conjested, and polluted cities.
Will create rail-centered, bicycle-friendly cities that offer less stress and pollution, more exercise.
Likely to decline in not-too-distant future as natural supplies deteriorate.
Will create major new industries; e.g., the wind industry will bring income and jobs from manufacturing, installation, and maintenance.
Declining Industries in an Eco-Economy
Declining Industries
¶
Description
Coal mining
The 7% decline in world coal burning since it peaked in 1996 will continue in the years ahead.
Oil pumping
Projections based on shrinking oil reserves indicate production will peak and start declining in the next 5-20 years. Concern about global warming could bring the decline closer.
Nuclear power
Although public concern focuses on safety issues, it is the high cost that is ensuring the industry's decline.
Clear-cut logging
The rapid spread in eco-labeling of forest products will likely force logging firms to change to sustainable harvesting or be driven out of business.
Manufacture of throwaway products
As efforts to close the materials cycle intensify, many throwaway products will either be banned or taxed out of existence.
Automobile manufacturing
As world population urbanizes, the conflict between the automobile and the city will intensify, reducing dependence on automobiles.
Examples of Expanding Industries in an Eco-Economy
Expanding Industries
¶
Description
Fish farming
Although growth will slow from the double-digit rate of the last decade, rapid expansion is likely to continue.
Bicycle manufacturing
Because bicycles are affordable, nonpolluting, quiet, require little parking space, and provide much-needed exercise in exercise-deprived societies, they will become increasingly common.
Wind-farm construction
Wind-electricity generation, including offshore wind farms, will grow rapidly over the next few decades, until wind is supplying most of the world's electricity.
Wind-turbine manufacturing
Today the number of utility-scale wind turbines is measured in the thousands, but soon it will be measured in the millions, creating an enormous manufacturing opportunity.
Hydrogen generation
As the transition from a carbon-based to a hydrogen-based energy economy progresses, hydrogen generation will become a key industry.
Fuel-cell manufacturing
As fuel cells replace internal-combustion engines in automobiles and begin generation power in buildings, a huge market will evolve.
Solar-cell manufacturing
For many of the 2 billion people living in rural Third World communities who lack electricity, solar cells will be the best bet for electrification.
Light-rail construction
As people tire of the traffic congestion and pollution associated with the automobile, cities in industrial and developing countries alike will be turning to light rail to provide mobility.
Tree planting
As efforts to reforest the earth gain momentum and as tree plantations expand, tree planting will emerge as a leading economic activity.
Expanding Professions in an Eco-Economy
Professions
¶
Description
Wind meteorologists
Wind meteorologists will play a role in the new energy economy comparable to that of petroleum geologist in the old one.
Family-planning midwives.
If world population is to stabilize soon, literally millions of family-planning midwives will be needed.
Foresters
Reforesting the earth will require professional guidance on what tree species to plant where and in what combination.
Hydrologists
As water scarcity spreads, the demand for hydrologists to advise on watershed management, water sources, and water efficiency will increase.
Recycling engineers
Designing consumer applications so they can be easily disassembled and completely recycled will become an engineering specialty.
Aquacultural veterinarians
Until now, veterinarians have typically specialized in either large animals or small animals, but with fish farming likely to overtake beef production by 2010, marine veterinarians will be in demand.
Ecological economists
As it becomes clear that the basic principles of ecology must be incorporated in economic planning and policy making, the demand for economists able to think like ecologists will grow.
Geothermal geologists
With the likelihood that large areas of the world will turn to geothermal energy both for electicity and for heating, the demands for geothermal geologists will climb.
Environmental architects
Architects are learning the principles of ecology so they can incorporate them into the buildings where we will live and work.
Bicycle mechanics
As the world turns to the bicycle for transportation and exercise, bicycle mechanics will be needed to keep the fleet running.
Wind-turbine engineers
With millions of wind turbines likely to be installed in the decades ahead, there will be strong worldwide demand for wind-turbine engineers.
